Does anyone actually want to win the medium-lift race in the United States?
The article examines four US medium-lift rockets in development and asks which companies can bring them into service reliably. The race matters because SpaceX plans to withdraw Falcon 9 from the commercial market as soon as 2028, leaving satellite operators uncertain about launch options from 2027 to 2030.
Medium-lift rockets are defined here as carrying 2 to 20 metric tons. The article contrasts the new vehicles, which use engines built in-house, with the Antares rocket, whose first version relied on ageing Soviet engines and exploded on its fifth launch in 2014. Stoke’s Nova is targeting an early 2027 debut, with capacity advertised at 3 tons when reusable or 7 tons when expendable; the article cautions that this schedule may be optimistic. It also discusses Terran R, whose advertised expendable capacity is 33.5 tons, though its reusable capacity is closer to 20 tons.
- Falcon 9’s planned 2028 market exit leaves a launch-capacity gap.
- Four US rockets are preparing to enter the medium-lift market.
- Stoke targets Nova’s first launch in early 2027, a potentially optimistic date.