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Everything to know about House and Senate control, ballot measures and 2026 Election Day poll closing
American voters are due to decide control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, with Republicans defending narrow majorities in both chambers. The results matter for the next two years of lawmaking, while races for governors, state legislatures and ballot measures will also shape policy across the country.
The article’s forecast rates Senate control a toss-up: Republicans hold 53 seats and need 50 to retain the majority, with Vice-President JD Vance able to break ties. Democrats are favoured to retake the 435-seat House, with a strong result potentially giving them 240 seats; Republicans could finish with 212. Voters will also choose governors in 36 states and decide on 145 statewide ballot measures.
In short
- Congress’s balance of power is at stake.
- Senate control is forecast as a toss-up.
- Democrats are favoured to win the House.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Republicans can argue that retaining Congress would give voters continuity and allow the party to carry out its agenda, while narrow majorities make each seat consequential. Their supporters may also see divided or closely contested control as a check on sweeping changes and a way to preserve policies they favour.
The case against
Democrats can argue that winning one or both chambers would give voters a chance to change the direction of federal lawmaking and scrutinise the Republican administration. With control decided by narrow margins, even a modest shift could affect legislation, oversight and the balance of power between the parties.
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