Forecasts of midterm blue wave put Trump’s legacy on line

Developed over time first seen 1 day ago

The Hill · 1 day ago

Forecasts of Democratic gains in the 3 November US midterm elections have put President Donald Trump’s influence over the final two years of his presidency in question. Trump has held 28 in-person campaign rallies and made stops in Republican strongholds, including Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska. Polling ahead of election day suggested competitive Senate races in several of those states. A Reuters/Ipsos survey published on 2 November put his approval rating at 32 per cent, adding to Republican concern that the elections could become a verdict on his presidency.

Control of Congress will determine how easily Trump can advance legislation and secure appointments, including any Supreme Court nomination that arises. The Republican National Committee argued that Democratic majorities would obstruct his agenda, while some Republican strategists questioned whether his campaigning had done enough to bring occasional supporters to the polls. Trump urged those who voted for him in 2024 to turn out again. The forecasts remain predictions: the scale of any Democratic gains, and their effect on Trump’s remaining term, depends on the results in individual races.

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In short

Polls point to possible Democratic gains in the midterms.
Trump has campaigned heavily in states Republicans hoped to retain.
A change in Congress could constrain his final two years.

How this story developed

3 hours ago Forecasts of Democratic gains in the 3 November US midterm elections have put President Donald Trump’s influence over the final two years of his presidency in question. Trump has held 28 in-person campaign rallies and made stops in Republican strongholds, including Texas, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska.

2 Nov, 22:23The Hill Forecasts of midterm blue wave put Trump’s legacy on line
3 Nov, 23:57Reuters/Ipsos Reuters/Ipsos early November survey
3 Nov, 23:57Pew Research Center Democratic Voters More Engaged in Midterms as Americans Are in a Sour Mood

Full account

A late-autumn polling snapshot suggests Democrats may be well placed to challenge Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections, as dissatisfaction with the country’s direction coincides with low ratings for President Donald Trump. The surveys point to a possible Democratic advantage in House contests, though their figures come from different samples and measures, and should not be treated as a forecast of the eventual result.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from 29 October to 2 November found Trump’s approval at 32%. Among likely voters, 52% said they would vote for or lean towards the Democratic candidate in their district, against 44% for or leaning towards the Republican. The poll surveyed 1,765 adults using Ipsos’s probability-based KnowledgePanel; its stated margin of sampling error for the full adult sample is 2.4 percentage points, with higher margins for subgroups.

Pew Research Center’s survey, fielded earlier, from 28 September to 4 October, found Trump’s approval at 30%, the lowest level of his second term. Among registered voters, 44% preferred a Democrat for the House and 36% a Republican; 5% favoured another candidate and 15% were unsure. Pew also reported that Democratic supporters were more engaged: they were more likely than Republican supporters to say they had given the election a lot of thought or were extremely motivated to vote. Its survey included 5,062 adults, of whom 3,917 were registered voters.

The Pew findings also suggest the president is central to many voters’ choices: 63% said Trump would be a factor in their congressional vote, with 44% describing their choice as a vote against him and 19% as a vote for him. The economy topped the issues tested, with 84% of registered voters saying it would be very important to their vote, including large majorities of both Democratic and Republican supporters. Together, the polls describe an unfavourable climate for Republicans, but they measure preferences at different points in the campaign and do not establish how turnout or district-level contests will shape the outcome.

Where outlets differ

From the full account, which is AI-written from the sources:

The outlets report similar-sized Democratic advantages but use different populations and questions. Reuters/Ipsos gives a 52% to 44% split among likely voters who would vote for or lean towards a candidate; Pew reports 44% to 36% among all registered voters, with separate responses for another candidate and uncertainty.

The surveys were conducted about a month apart: Pew’s ran from 28 September to 4 October, while Reuters/Ipsos’s ran from 29 October to 2 November. Their Trump approval results are 30% and 32%, respectively, rather than a directly comparable change measurement.

Pew’s report gives more attention to voter engagement, the president’s role in congressional choices, and the economy, including prices for gas and energy. The Reuters/Ipsos release supplied here focuses on its headline approval and generic-ballot results and survey methodology.