Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race galloping toward a photo finish

A new poll finds Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% among likely voters in Texas’s US Senate race, tightening from Talarico’s two-point lead last month. The result puts the state’s long record of Republican wins in statewide elections under pressure, though the poll also finds Texans slightly favour Republicans retaining control of the Senate.

Paxton has gained support among several groups, while Talarico leads among Black, urban and younger voters, as well as Hispanic voters, who favour him by 30 points. Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting, and Talarico has stronger backing within his party; Paxton has a 17-point net negative favourability rating, compared with Talarico’s one-point positive rating. In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by five points, 52% to 47%.