Fox News' 2026 midterm power rankings show Democrats holding a modest edge in the generic ballot and party affiliation ahead of the House elections, but Republican gains from redistricting are helping to offset that advantage. Historically, the party holding the White House has lost an average of 25 House seats in midterms during Donald Trump's terms, and Democrats currently appear on track for a roughly average result. However, GOP-favourable redistricting efforts are reshaping the maps in ways that blunt the scale of any Democratic gains, keeping Republicans competitive in the fight for control of the chamber.

According to the analysis, Republicans are likely to gain about a dozen House seats purely as a result of redistricting, a shift that could prove decisive in a chamber where the GOP currently holds a slim majority. The rankings, compiled with contributor Karl Rove, also identify four Senate toss-up races (in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio) and 16 competitive House seats. Attention is also being paid to an upcoming Michigan Democratic primary on 4 August between progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed and establishment figure Haley Stevens, seen as a test of the party's direction.