Estonia's foreign minister has stated that his country's intelligence detects no evidence of Russia preparing for a full-scale military invasion of NATO, contrary to growing European fears. Though Estonia shares a 180-mile border with Russia and has historically been vocal about Moscow's threat, Margus Tsahkna distinguished between conventional military preparations and the intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks—including drone incursions, cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation—that Russia has been conducting against European nations.

Tsahkna drew a stark contrast with conditions a decade ago, when approximately 120,000 Russian troops were positioned across regional borders, ready to mobilise within 48 hours; today, he characterised the Russian side of Estonia's border as "pretty empty." Instead, the immediate concern centres on Russia's campaign of provocations designed to remain below NATO's Article 5 collective-defence threshold. Estonia recorded roughly 40,000 cyberattacks last year and has experienced GPS interference, airspace violations and drone incursions. Tsahkna argued that NATO must adopt more flexible and dynamic responses to these sub-Article 5 attacks, suggesting that Putin's strategy is to incrementally increase pressure on the West whilst attempting to divide its unity.