Home Office data has confirmed that this year's fall in small boat Channel crossings is partly attributable to less favourable weather, undermining the government's claim that the drop is solely due to its border policies. Figures showed there were fewer "red days" – periods when conditions make crossings likely – between January and August 2026 compared with the same period last year, contributing to a sharp year-on-year decline in arrivals. The disclosure has fuelled a political row, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood insisting the fall reflects tougher enforcement rather than weather, while the Conservatives accused her of "twisting the facts".

There were 110 red days this year to the end of August, down 11 per cent on the 123 recorded over the same period last year, coinciding with a 44 per cent fall in small boat arrivals. Mahmood said the average number of migrants crossing on a red day fell to 144 from 232 last year, calling it the lowest summer arrival total since 2020, while shadow home secretary Chris Philp noted nearly 20,000 people had still crossed this year and criticised the £660 million deal funding French beach patrols. Labour scrapped the previous government's Rwanda deportation scheme on taking office, instead pursuing enforcement action against people-smuggling gangs and boosting French patrol officer numbers to over 1,000.