Resolution Foundation warns working-age households could lose £1,050 by 2029
The Resolution Foundation warns that a typical working-age household’s disposable income could fall by £1,050 between 2026-27 and 2028-29. It says falling real wages, higher taxes and rising housing costs are set to squeeze incomes, despite recent gains.
The think-tank projects median non-pensioner incomes will grow by 1.8 per cent over the Parliament, equivalent to £600 in current prices, with that growth already achieved. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects no real earnings growth in 2027 and 2028, and says firms may pass on higher National Insurance costs to workers. The Foundation also criticised a £100 energy-bill discount for some homes, saying recipients could still pay more than during the 2022 energy crisis.
In short
- Typical household incomes could fall by £1,050 by 2028-29.
- The forecast reflects weaker wages, higher taxes and housing costs.
- Recent income growth is projected to give way to declines.
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The case for
The warning highlights how stagnant real wages, higher taxes and housing costs could erode household living standards, even if median incomes have risen overall so far. If employers pass on higher National Insurance costs and energy bills remain elevated, households may reasonably expect policy-makers to do more than point to earlier gains or a limited discount.
The case against
The £1,050 figure is a projection, not a guaranteed loss, and the Foundation also expects median non-pensioner incomes to grow over the Parliament, with that increase already achieved. The outlook depends on uncertain wage, tax and housing-cost assumptions; a targeted energy discount may still offer some relief, even if it does not return recipients to pre-crisis bills.
Explained simply
The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank that studies living standards and the economy in the UK. A household’s disposable income is the money it has left after taxes and benefits to spend or save.
Working-age households are those whose members are below pension age. Their incomes can be affected by wages, taxes, benefits and costs such as rent, mortgages and energy bills, so changes in these areas help explain whether families have more or less money to live on.
The Office for Budget Responsibility is the government’s independent forecaster, assessing how the economy and public finances may develop. Its forecasts, alongside the Foundation’s analysis, provide context for how pay and household costs could change over the coming years.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Households face being £1,050 a year worse off by 2029 as they are hammered by energy crisis and Labour tax raids”.