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Japan watches for signs of change in Trump’s foreign policy priorities
Japan is watching for signs that Donald Trump may shift US policy towards the Indo-Pacific after his party’s losses in the November 3 midterm elections. Tokyo fears he could seek a quick diplomatic success with China that overlooks allies’ interests, potentially unsettling regional security and Japan’s confidence in its long-standing alliance with Washington.
The leaders of the US, China and Russia are expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18-19. Japan’s foreign minister, Toshimitsu Motegi, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed in Paris to strengthen security cooperation and maintain close communication on the Indo-Pacific. Japanese experts also cite concerns about Taiwan being used as a bargaining chip, China’s rare earth export restrictions on Japan, and Trump’s outreach to Russia and North Korea.
In short
- Japan fears a US-China deal could leave Indo-Pacific allies exposed.
- Tokyo and Washington pledged closer security cooperation.
- Concerns include Taiwan, rare earth restrictions, Russia and North Korea.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A US president may reasonably reassess foreign policy after an election, and pursuing direct talks with China could reduce tensions or produce practical gains on trade and security. Supporters of greater flexibility may argue that diplomacy works best when the president can explore agreements without being bound to every ally’s preferred approach, while continued US-Japan coordination can help manage any differences.
The case against
Japan has strong grounds to worry that a quick US-China deal could trade away allied interests or weaken deterrence around Taiwan, especially amid China’s export restrictions and regional security tensions. From this perspective, predictable consultation with Japan and other partners is essential: abrupt shifts, or outreach to China, Russia or North Korea without allied coordination, could erode confidence in US commitments and unsettle the Indo-Pacific.
Explained simply
Japan’s security has long depended in part on its alliance with the United States, which stations forces in the country and works with Tokyo on regional defence. The Indo-Pacific includes East Asia and the western Pacific, where China’s growing influence and tensions over Taiwan are major security concerns for Japan.
Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy can affect how closely the US works with allies and how it deals with China, Russia and North Korea. Japan is also concerned about China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, since these materials are used in products such as electronics and vehicles.
These issues matter because changes in US policy could affect regional security and Japan’s confidence in its alliance with Washington. Japan and the US have said they will keep in close contact and strengthen security cooperation.
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