Democrats lead midterm poll by eight points, but confidence lags
A poll conducted seven days before the US midterm elections showed Democrats leading Republicans by eight points among likely voters on the congressional ballot. But it also highlighted a confidence gap among Democrats and weaker enthusiasm among some groups in their coalition, raising doubts about whether their lead will translate into gains in Congress.
In the NPR/PBS News/Marist survey, 98 per cent of Democratic likely voters said they would back their party’s candidate, while 81 per cent expected that candidate to win; the gap among Republicans was 10 points. Trump’s approval was 40 per cent, with 59 per cent disapproving, while 44 per cent said their vote was against him and 21 per cent in support. Overall, 71 per cent of Democratic likely voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61 per cent of Republicans, though enthusiasm was lower among voters under 45 and some other groups, and recent district map changes could limit Democratic seat gains.
In short
- Democrats lead by eight points on the congressional ballot.
- Democratic voters are less confident their candidates will win.
- Lower enthusiasm among some groups and district maps may limit gains.
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The case for
The eight-point lead, strong Democratic support for their candidates and higher reported enthusiasm suggest the party may be well placed to gain votes and possibly seats. High disapproval of Trump and the number of voters saying they are voting against him could also help Democrats, even if some supporters are less certain of victory.
The case against
A polling lead does not guarantee congressional gains: fewer Democrats than Republicans expect their candidate to win, and weaker enthusiasm among younger voters and other coalition groups could affect turnout. District boundaries can also limit how votes translate into seats, so the reported margin may overstate Democrats’ likely gains in Congress.
Explained simply
US midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate, which together make federal laws and can shape what the president is able to do.
The two main parties are the Democrats and Republicans. Donald Trump is a Republican president, and his approval among voters can influence how they view candidates from his party, though congressional races are decided separately in each state and district.
A party’s share of the national vote does not translate directly into the same share of seats, because House contests are decided in individual districts. The way district boundaries are drawn can also affect how many seats each party can realistically win.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “New poll shows warning sign for Democrats as ‘nervousness’ spreads with seven days to the midterm elections”.