Pennsylvania takes center stage in Democrats’ push to flip the House

Pennsylvania has become a central part of the Democrats’ effort to regain control of the US House of Representatives in the 3 November midterm elections. Four Republican-held districts are considered competitive: Brian Fitzpatrick’s 1st District around Bucks County, Ryan Mackenzie’s 7th in the Lehigh Valley, Rob Bresnahan’s 8th around Scranton, and Scott Perry’s 10th around Harrisburg. Democrats need a net gain of three seats nationwide for a majority, so gains in Pennsylvania could have a decisive effect. The party’s confidence rests partly on narrow Republican victories in several of these districts in 2024 and the prospect of a different turnout pattern without Donald Trump on the ballot.

Each contest has its own dynamics. Fitzpatrick has repeatedly won over voters who backed Democrats for president and has distanced himself from some of Trump’s policies; he faces Bucks County commissioner Bob Harvie. Mackenzie faces former firefighter and union leader Bob Brooks, while Bresnahan is challenged by Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti. Perry faces a rematch with former television presenter Janelle Stelson after beating her narrowly in 2024. Both parties are spending heavily, and Republican incumbents retain advantages that make a Democratic sweep far from certain. The results will show whether Democrats can turn a favourable national climate into enough local victories to take the House.