SCHOEN, COOPERMAN: Democrats could be riding a midterm wave. These numbers should terrify the GOP

Democrats’ eight point lead in the generic congressional ballot suggests they may be heading towards a strong midterm election, putting Republican control of the House and possibly the Senate at risk. The article argues that the polling reflects a political climate favouring Democrats, while cautioning that it does not predict the outcome of individual races.

Historical patterns lend weight to the concern: since 1934, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats in midterms, and the average House loss over the past five midterms was 31 seats. Democratic candidates are polling well in North Carolina, Michigan and Maine, and are more competitive than expected in states including Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska and Kansas. However, many Senate contests remain close, Republicans have a fundraising advantage, and Democrats’ divisions and weak party image could hinder them.