The 6 races that could decide Senate control 

Six Republican-held Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas were rated toss-ups by Decision Desk HQ in the final days before the 2026 US midterm elections. The contests give Democrats several routes to a majority, but they need a net gain of four seats. Republicans can retain control by defending enough of these seats, particularly if Democrats fail to hold their own competitive races. A toss-up rating means either party has a credible chance; it does not predict a winner.

The six races span very different political terrain, from Susan Collins’s re-election bid in Maine to contests in states that have recently favoured Republicans. The Cook Political Report also placed all six in its toss-up category on 2 November, while rating the Democratic-held seats in Michigan and New Hampshire as leaning Democratic. Late polling showed close contests across much of the map, leaving turnout and any polling error capable of changing the balance. The ratings describe the position before votes are counted, so the eventual Senate majority remains uncertain.