Labour leads as Conservatives widen their polling gap over Reform UK
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A second poll this week has put the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK, with Labour still leading. The result points to a possible boost for Kemi Badenoch after her party conference and adds to questions about Nigel Farage’s standing.
More in Common recorded Labour on 28 per cent, the Conservatives on 24 per cent and Reform on 21 per cent. Reform was on 33 per cent in the same poll a year ago, while a YouGov survey earlier this week also placed it third. More in Common said the Conservatives had reached their highest rating since March 2025; Farage is also awaiting a standards inquiry into whether he should have declared a £5 million personal gift.
- Conservatives move ahead of Reform in a second poll this week.
- Labour remains first on 28 per cent.
- Reform has fallen from 33 per cent a year ago.
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The Conservatives and Reform UK are both parties on the right of British politics, competing for many of the same voters. The Conservatives, led by Kemi Badenoch, governed the UK until Labour won the 2024 general election; Reform, led by Nigel Farage, is a newer party that has drawn support from people unhappy with the established parties.
Opinion polls estimate how people might vote if an election were held now, but they are not election results and can differ between pollsters. Changes in support matter because they may affect parties’ strategies and leaders’ standing, while a standards inquiry examines whether rules for politicians have been followed.
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The case for
The poll may indicate that the Conservatives’ conference and Kemi Badenoch’s leadership have begun to win back voters, while Reform’s fall from its rating a year ago suggests its support may be less settled than it appeared. Two surveys placing the Tories ahead lend some weight to the possibility of a shift, though polls are snapshots rather than election results.
The case against
A lead of three points in one poll is modest and may reflect sampling variation rather than a lasting change in support; Labour remains ahead, and Reform still has substantial backing. The comparison with a year ago and the standards inquiry may shape perceptions, but neither by itself establishes why respondents’ preferences have changed or how they will vote at an election.
Full account
A More in Common poll places Labour first on 28 per cent, the Conservatives second on 24 per cent and Reform UK third on 21 per cent. The result is the second poll in a week to put the Conservatives ahead of Reform, after a YouGov survey reported Labour on 24 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 21 per cent. The figures suggest a narrowing contest between the two right-leaning parties, while Labour remains ahead in both surveys.
The Conservative gains follow the party’s conference in Birmingham, where Kemi Badenoch set out tax-cutting proposals, including changes to inheritance tax and childcare support. More in Common’s director, Luke Tryl, described the result as a conference bounce. He said Badenoch’s approval had risen among Conservative and Reform voters, as well as among Labour and Liberal Democrat voters. The poll put her net approval at +5, her highest in that firm’s tracking.
The two reports frame the political significance differently. The Independent focuses on the implications for Nigel Farage and Reform, noting that the party has fallen from 33 per cent in a More in Common poll a year earlier and citing scrutiny of donations and dealings involving Farage and other party figures. The second report emphasises Badenoch’s conference platform and the possible electoral consequences, including speculation about an early general election and the prospect of a hung parliament. Neither poll alone establishes that a snap election is imminent.
The Independent also reports More in Common’s approval figures for other political leaders: Andy Burnham was at +11, Ed Davey at -11, Rupert Lowe at -15, and Zack Polanski at -35. It says Burnham had the highest gross approval, at 40 per cent, followed by Badenoch on 35 per cent and Farage on 26 per cent. The second report adds that an Opinium poll over the weekend had also suggested a Conservative rise, but gives no figures for it. Poll results are snapshots, and the surveys cited use different polling organisations and may not be directly comparable.
Where outlets differ
The Independent describes the More in Common result as a three-point Conservative lead over Reform and stresses the decline in Reform’s support from a year earlier. The second report likewise gives the three-point gap but foregrounds Badenoch’s policies and conference bounce.
The Independent includes leadership approval figures and allegations or investigations affecting Reform figures. The second report instead discusses election preparations, speculation about an early contest and the possibility that the polling pattern could yield a hung parliament.
The second report mentions an Opinium poll as further evidence of a Conservative bounce; the Independent’s account does not mention it. The source reports also differ in how they describe the Labour leadership, with the second characterising the government as leftward-moving while the Independent presents polling figures for Burnham without that framing.
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Originally published by The Independent as “Tories leapfrog Reform in poll for the second time this week”.