Donald Trump's closest advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have privately warned him that the war with Iran could continue for the remainder of his presidency, according to the Wall Street Journal. Their assessment, delivered during recent Oval Office and Situation Room meetings, contradicts Trump's public claim that the conflict will end "immediately" after November's midterm elections. This matters because the ongoing confrontation, centred on Iran's nuclear ambitions and its disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, is already destabilising global oil markets and could keep pushing up costs for consumers for years if it drags on.

Iran has repeatedly closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, in response to US pressure over its nuclear programme, prompting American strikes on Iranian military and radar assets. Brent crude hit $101 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since May, as a June ceasefire collapsed weeks later amid accusations Tehran attacked commercial tankers. Washington wants Iran to end its nuclear programme and surrender enriched uranium stockpiles, while Tehran seeks joint control of the strait and compensation for US strike damage; Trump's naval blockade, reinstated in mid-July, has cut off Iranian crude exports via the Gulf, with Tehran's remaining stored reserves shrinking from roughly 90 million to 29 million barrels and expected to run out next month.