A new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report concludes that global warming will exceed the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, marking a significant shift in tone from previous UN messaging. Rather than outlining how to avoid crossing this threshold, the report focuses on strategies to minimise how far and how long temperatures remain above it, reflecting the scale of the gap between current climate action and what is needed to prevent further warming.

The report, titled Limiting Overshoot, proposes an "overshoot, peak and decline" strategy requiring nations to both eliminate greenhouse gas emissions and remove substantial amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, with the latter treated as an additional measure rather than a substitute for net-zero targets. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that even brief periods above 1.5°C could bring severe and lasting consequences, urging countries to intensify climate action and adaptation efforts. The report's shift in focus comes as both the US and EU governments have relaxed greenhouse gas emissions restrictions this year.