Young voters could help shape the midterms. But will they turn out?

Young Americans could influence close races in the 2026 US midterm elections, but their voting intentions leave the scale of that influence uncertain. An October Harvard Youth Poll found that Democrats led Republicans by 63% to 26% among 18 to 29-year-olds who said they would definitely vote. Yet only 33% of all young respondents said they would definitely cast a ballot, down from 40% in comparable polls before the 2018 and 2022 midterms. The findings suggest a clear preference among the most committed young voters, while giving no assurance that the wider age group will turn out in force.

Other research shows both interest in the election and obstacles to participation. A CIRCLE and When We All Vote survey found that 56% of young people said they were extremely likely to vote, with many motivated by a desire to change politics. Its researchers also pointed to disillusionment and a lack of practical voting information as barriers. The surveys use different questions and measures, so their figures are not directly comparable or forecasts of turnout. How many young people vote, and where they live, will determine whether their potential influence translates into results.