An opinion article argues that Vladimir Putin may be on the brink of a catastrophic military miscalculation capable of triggering NATO's collective defence clause and escalating into broader European conflict. Analysing Putin's expansionist ambitions since 2014, the author identifies three current developments as warning signs of imminent Russian military action against NATO member states.

The three indicators cited are: Russia's planned mobilisation of approximately 300,000 troops by year's end, with over 113,000 citizens having fled in August to avoid conscription and new penalties imposed on companies failing to support the war effort; the Russian Federal Security Service's imposition of night-time curfews and river fortifications along the Estonian border, described as preparations for NATO member Estonia's invasion; and Belarus's recent military exercises near the strategically important Suwalki Gap—a 25-mile corridor linking Belarus and Russian Kaliningrad that, if seized, would isolate the Baltic states.