Blue wave nearly swallowed some of America’s reddest states as election data exposes GOP’s close calls

Democrats made unexpectedly strong gains in the 2026 midterms, bringing several traditionally Republican states close to flipping despite large GOP spending advantages. The narrow results point to a sharp weakening of Republican margins in some long-time strongholds and have fuelled internal party recriminations.

In Tennessee, Republican Marsha Blackburn beat Democrat Jerri Green by under three percentage points after spending nearly $13 million, compared with Green’s just over $2 million; Trump had carried the state by almost 30 points in 2024. Republican Julia Letlow won Louisiana’s Senate race by just under two points after her side spent about $9.4 million against Democrats’ roughly $3.89 million. Florida’s Republicans also won by less than two points despite spending about five times more, while Mississippi’s Senate race remained undecided, with dozens of votes separating Cindy Hyde-Smith and Scott Colom.