A proposed agreement under which Hamas would disarm in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the 70% of Gaza it occupies could offer a rare opening for diplomatic progress, Jeremy Bowen writes. However, he says profound mistrust, the scale of destruction and deaths, and political pressures on both sides make implementation highly uncertain.

The article says more than two million Palestinian civilians face catastrophic conditions, citing the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN considers reliable, as reporting more than 70,000 Palestinians killed during the war and over 1,000 since the ceasefire. It contrasts this with Israeli concerns after Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 killed nearly 1,200 people and led to 251 hostages being taken, while noting Benjamin Netanyahu’s October election and Donald Trump’s November midterms could shape the negotiations.