Bowen: Plan for Hamas to disarm faces big obstacles, yet it offers rare hope for Gaza
A proposed agreement under which Hamas would disarm in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the 70% of Gaza it occupies could offer a rare opening for diplomatic progress, Jeremy Bowen writes. However, he says profound mistrust, the scale of destruction and deaths, and political pressures on both sides make implementation highly uncertain.
The article says more than two million Palestinian civilians face catastrophic conditions, citing the Hamas-run health ministry, which the UN considers reliable, as reporting more than 70,000 Palestinians killed during the war and over 1,000 since the ceasefire. It contrasts this with Israeli concerns after Hamas-led attacks on 7 October 2023 killed nearly 1,200 people and led to 251 hostages being taken, while noting Benjamin Netanyahu’s October election and Donald Trump’s November midterms could shape the negotiations.
- Hamas disarmament could unlock an Israeli withdrawal from much of Gaza.
- Deep mistrust and devastation threaten the proposed agreement.
- Israeli and US elections may heavily influence negotiations.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A credible, independently monitored disarmament process could offer Gaza a rare route out of recurring war by reducing the immediate military threat to Israel and making a durable ceasefire, reconstruction and expanded humanitarian access more politically achievable. Supporters would argue that civilians in Gaza need accountable governance and physical rebuilding more than another armed confrontation, and that phased disarmament tied to security guarantees, aid and political representation could create incentives that force alone has not produced.
The case against
Critics would argue that expecting Hamas to disarm amid devastation, occupation-related grievances and profound distrust is unrealistic, particularly without a convincing political settlement and guarantees against renewed Israeli military action. They may also contend that disarmament imposed or pursued before addressing Palestinian rights, governance legitimacy and Gaza's security could leave residents vulnerable, deepen humiliation and create a vacuum that other armed groups might fill.