Burnham warned trans-pacific £2bn trade boost fails ‘to plug Brexit black hole’
Andy Burnham has been warned that the UK's full entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which took effect on 1 September, will not offset the trade losses caused by Brexit, despite delivering an estimated £2bn boost to the economy. The warning comes after The Independent revealed last week that the UK loses £11.7bn a year in trade as a result of leaving the EU, with campaigners arguing the CPTPP gains are dwarfed by this shortfall and by the wider economic damage from exiting the Single Market.
The CPTPP became fully operational after Canada, the last of the 11-nation bloc's members, ratified UK accession in July, following the deal's initial signing under Rishi Sunak in 2023. Critics, including European Movement UK chair Mike Galsworthy and Best for Britain's Naomi Smith, note the Office for Budget Responsibility puts the cost of leaving the Single Market at around 4 per cent of GDP, roughly £120bn a year — sixty times the CPTPP's projected benefit — and that the UK already had trade deals with nine of the eleven CPTPP members. Liberal Democrat trade spokesperson Joshua Reynolds called for rejoining the customs union and Single Market instead, while the row highlights pressure on Burnham, who has said he will maintain Keir Starmer's red lines against rejoining the EU, Single Market or Customs Union.
In short
- UK's full CPTPP membership took effect 1 September, adding roughly £2bn to GDP
- Critics say this is far smaller than the £11.7bn-£120bn annual Brexit trade losses
- Campaigners urge rejoining the EU Single Market and customs union instead
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The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Joining CPTPP gives the UK new opportunities to deepen trade with a large Pacific bloc and is forecast to add about £2bn to the economy. Supporters can argue that this is a tangible gain from diversifying trade beyond Europe, and that it need not be judged as a replacement for every benefit of EU membership.
The case against
Critics argue that the projected gain is small beside the estimated losses linked to leaving the EU single market, and that the UK already had trade agreements with most CPTPP members. They contend that closer ties with the EU, including the single market or customs union, would address the larger source of the shortfall more directly.
Explained simply
The CPTPP is a trade agreement between the UK and 11 countries around the Pacific, including Canada, Japan and Australia. The UK signed up in 2023, and its membership took full effect after Canada ratified the deal in July.
Brexit took the UK out of the EU’s Single Market and customs union, changing how businesses trade with the EU. The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that leaving the Single Market will reduce UK productivity by about 4 per cent over the long term; the government has also estimated a smaller economic gain from CPTPP membership.
The debate is about how those changes compare and what trade arrangements the UK should pursue. Andy Burnham has said he will stick to Labour’s position against rejoining the EU, Single Market or customs union, while some critics argue closer ties with the EU would bring greater economic benefits.