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Republicans Gerrymandered These Florida Districts. Democrats Won Them Anyway.
Several Democrats have won Florida congressional seats that Republicans redrew earlier this year to favour their party, including Kathy Castor, who was re-elected by more than five points. The results show how redistricting can create more seats favourable to one party while making its voters more spread out, leaving those seats less secure.
The new map could have given Republicans as many as 24 of Florida’s 28 House seats, up from 20, and they have a 1.5 million registered-voter advantage among 13.7 million voters. Analysts also point to Trump’s rising unpopularity, frustration over the economy and the usual midterm losses for a president’s party as factors that may have helped Democrats. But Republicans remain dominant in statewide politics and have substantial campaign funds, while Democrats still have ground to make up.
In short
- Democrats won several seats redrawn to favour Republicans.
- The new map could give Republicans up to 24 of 28 House seats.
- Analysts cite voter frustration and diluted GOP support as factors.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Republicans can argue that redrawing districts to improve their party’s prospects is a legitimate part of political competition, provided the map complies with the law, and that the new map could still have translated their statewide advantage into more House seats. Democratic wins in several districts do not erase the broader Republican gains or show that those seats will remain secure in future elections.
The case against
Democrats can argue that the map was designed to give Republicans an outsized share of seats and that the results expose the limits and risks of that strategy: spreading a party’s voters across more districts can make those seats vulnerable. Their wins also suggest that voters’ views on the economy, the president and midterm politics can outweigh the advantages mapmakers seek to create.