Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost
Americans will elect a new House of Representatives and a third of the Senate on 3 November, in contests that could decide how much of Donald Trump’s agenda can advance during his final two years in office. Republicans currently control both chambers, but Trump’s approval rating has fallen to about 37%, giving Democrats hope of taking Congress.
The House is narrowly controlled by Republicans, with 218 seats; all 435 seats are up for election, and 21 districts are rated toss-ups, 15 held by Republicans. Democrats need to gain five seats beyond those rated likely or leaning Democratic to win control. In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, and 35 are being contested; Democrats need four toss-up seats as well as four likely or leaning Democratic seats to reach 51. Their path includes defending Michigan and competing in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- Trump’s approval rating is about 37%.
- Democrats need five net gains to win the House.
- The Senate battle includes 35 seats.
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The United States holds midterm elections every two years to renew the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. On 3 November, Americans will vote in contests that carry particular significance because Donald Trump is in his final two years as president, and the results will largely determine how much of his legislative agenda Congress allows to advance. Trump's approval rating has fallen to around 37 per cent, weakening Republican prospects and giving Democrats genuine hope of gaining control of one or both chambers.
Republicans currently hold the House with 218 of 435 seats and the Senate with 53 of 100 seats. All House seats are up for election, with 21 districts rated as competitive, most held by Republicans; Democrats need to gain just five additional seats beyond those already leaning Democratic to win a majority. In the Senate, 35 of 100 seats are contested; Democrats would need to win several closely fought races to reach the 51 votes needed for control.
Some of the most competitive Senate races are taking place in states that voted strongly for Trump in 2024, such as Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, where Democrats must campaign on unfavourable terrain. Democrats also face the challenge of defending their seat in Michigan. How these competitive races unfold across both chambers will largely determine whether Trump can advance his policy agenda during his final two years in office.